588 Sugar Valley Trl SE · Conyers, GA 30094

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1974 0.66 ac lot $176/sqft · 27% above area Est $355k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this charming, 4 bedroom, 3 bath home in Conyers. A large fireplace anchors the dining area and can be enjoyed in the kitchen thanks to this home's layout. Kitchen has been upgraded with all stainless steel appliances, including cabinets, countertops and backsplash. Primary suite includes ensuite bath, also upgraded! Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Upgraded countertops
• Ensuite bath
• Large fireplace

Tags

• LARGE FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED BACKSPLASH
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• Financial info: Investor owned
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential property; Resale
• Construction: Built in 1974
• Exterior features: Wood siding and other exterior materials; Composition roof; Large lot (approximately 0.66 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total (3 on main level, 1 on lower level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on main level, 1 on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity in baths; Separate shower; Soaking tub; Tile baths; Finished basement; Multi/split levels; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#167 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Rockdale County (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #136 of 174 in GA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barksdale Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 489 students, 70% FRL); General Ray Davis Middle School (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #178 of 470 statewide, top 39%, 978 students, 62% FRL); Heritage High School (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #345 of 424 statewide, top 82%, 1,877 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Rockdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockdale County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,431 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,008
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -19.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
566 Sugar Valley Ln SE	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-7%)	3mo	$229,900	$152	80
456 Valley Woods Cir SE	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+4%)	2mo	$107,100	$63	79
450 Valley Woods Cir SE	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,681 (+4%)	2mo	$248,000	$148	68
586 Ribbon Ln	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,670 (+3%)	1mo	$365,000	$219	64
610 Camary Ct SE	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+7%)	6mo	$270,000	$156	60
4111 Sweet Water Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	12mo	$236,681	$163	54
801 Sugar Creek Trl SE	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+10%)	12mo	$305,000	$171	48
4005 Camary Dr SE	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+13%)	22mo	$300,000	$164	43
3557 Clubhouse Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,818 (+12%)	11mo	$239,000	$131	37
412 Shadow Oak Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,851 (+14%)	18mo	$240,000	$130	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-69,084
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-82,746
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30094

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,984 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,213/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,487

Max offer price $214,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-316	+0% $-397	+5% $-477	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-554	-5% $-475	+0% $-397	+5% $-318	+10% $-240
Rate	-1.0pp $-253	-0.5pp $-324	base $-397	+0.5pp $-471	+1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3706 Jolane Ter SE Conyers, GA	4.0	2.5	1990	$2,116	$1.06	6d	1	0.49mi
4038 Troupe Smith Rd SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1854	$1,900	$1.02	22d	1	0.70mi
309 Cowan Rd SE Conyers, GA	4.0	2.0	1424	$1,700	$1.19	45d	1	0.71mi
3775 Ebenezer Rd SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,800	$1.23	6d	1	0.85mi
3438 Creekwood Dr SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,845	$1.00	26d	1	0.93mi
1062 Plantation Blvd SE Conyers, GA	3.0	3.0	1219	$1,810	$1.48	22d	1	1.09mi
3834 Maggie Dr SE Conyers, GA	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,580	$1.10	26d	1	1.12mi
1051 Tony Valley Dr SE Conyers, GA	4.0	3.0	1758	$2,261	$1.29	1d	1	1.16mi
3811 Eden Glen Dr SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.5	1706	$2,060	$1.21	23d	1	1.24mi
4656 Bristol Dr SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	45d	1	1.38mi
3144 Goode Rd Conyers, GA	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $285,000 New 357-char remark
2. 2023-08-03
   historical $2,220
3. 2023-07-16
   listed $2,220
4. 2022-02-16
   soldstatus $254,000
5. 2021-12-29
   soldstatus $254,000
6. 1989-07-26
   soldstatus $91,000
7. 1988-05-06
   soldstatus $73,600
8. 1983-09-01
   soldstatus $77,500
9. 1968-07-19
   soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,213 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,213 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,213
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,905
• − Management: −$1,905
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$9,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,374
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockdale County
• NCES district ID: 1304410
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,325
• Composite: 19.42/100
• National rank: #8776
• State rank: #136 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conyers

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #10533

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockdale County · 96,534 people
• City population: 96,534
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 33,731
• Household income: $88,530
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Rockdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,145 people
• By 2030: 104,558 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 116,100 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 127,827 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 159,113 · +60.5%
• By 2100: 181,178 · +82.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 29% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockdale

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+47.5) · D 73.4% · R 25.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 47.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+47.5 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.06%
• Current HPI: 205.627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+213.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2023-08-03 Rental Removed $2,220 RENTLY
• 2023-07-16 Listed for Rent $2,220 RENTLY
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $254,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $254,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $73,600 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 1968-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,213 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.