613 Bourdois Ave

North Bellport, NY 11713

$649,999F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,791/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,147
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-1,561/mo
• Annual: $-18,730/yr
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.29%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (42.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (41.7% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $374k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kreamer Street Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 290 students, 37% FRL); Bellport Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 838 students, 56% FRL); Bellport Senior High School (math 86% / reading 64%, grade A-, #630 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,392 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.