613 Bourdois Ave · North Bellport, NY 11713

$649,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 7,841 sqft lot $601/sqft · 116% above area Est $596k · 9% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Incredible opportunity to own this newly renovated oversized 4-bedroom, (could be a six bedroom-seller took wall down on the first floor) 3-bath colonial situated mid-block on a perfect flat lot with brand new vinyl siding and undeniable curb appeal! Step inside to an open floor plan drenched in natural light, with recessed lighting and a fresh coat of paint throughout. The kitchen, dining, and living areas are finished in sleek tile flooring, creating a seamless flow for entertaining. The chef’s kitchen boasts crisp white cabinets, luxurious quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and tons of cabinet and counter space. The first floor offers a stunning spa-like full bath, rec

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Chef's kitchen
• 7,841 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRAND NEW VINYL SIDING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• LUXURIOUS QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STUNNING SPA-LIKE FULL BATH
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (42.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $374k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $374,269 (42.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.29%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,876
• List price: $649,999
• Delta: 0.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Bayview Ave	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,080 (-0%)	3mo	$620,000	$574	82
635 Provost Ave	0.11mi	4/1.0	1,045 (-3%)	3mo	$447,000	$428	78
425 Macdonald Ave	0.28mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,140 (+5%)	0mo	$579,000	$508	67
509 Hampton Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (+2%)	6mo	$575,000	$521	62
825 Doane Ave	0.43mi	4/1.0	1,112 (+3%)	11mo	$505,000	$454	58
270 Louise Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	11mo	$505,000	$459	56
718 Taylor Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,224 (+13%)	8mo	$580,000	$474	54
625 Scherger Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-8%)	10mo	$399,000	$399	54
609 Michigan Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	968 (-10%)	7mo	$419,000	$433	47
62 Beaver Dam Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,140 (+5%)	12mo	$560,000	$491	41
833 Doane Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	950 (-12%)	9mo	$415,000	$437	38
941 Provost Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	964 (-11%)	9mo	$400,000	$415	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-204,642
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-305,815
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11713

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,791 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$876 /mo · $10,517/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-1,561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,767

Max offer price $374,269

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
718 Provost Ave Bellport, NY	4.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	44d	1	0.21mi
640 Post Ave Bellport, NY	3.0	1.0	1024	$3,600	$3.52	10d	1	0.40mi
655 Post Ave Bellport, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$3,350	$3.32	10d	1	0.44mi
849 Walker Ave Bellport, NY	3.0	1.0	884	$3,500	$3.96	4d	1	0.67mi
91 Circuit Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	1.5	1154	$4,500	$3.90	24d	1	0.90mi
58 N Howells Point Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	2.0	1404	$15,000	$10.68	19d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,999 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,999 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,999 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,999 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,999 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $649,999 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,999 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $649,999 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    status Active
15. 2026-04-05
    historical
16. 2025-04-29
    listed $599,999 Active
17. 2024-10-18
    status Active
18. 2024-10-18
    historical
19. 2024-10-11
    status Pending
20. 2024-09-25
    historical
21. 2024-07-09
    price $599,999
22. 2024-06-29
    listed $629,000 Active
23. 2024-06-28
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,517 · $876/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,751 · $896/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$19/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$10,517
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,640
• − Management: −$3,640
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$30,871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,409
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600008
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $74,049
• Composite: 44.75/100
• National rank: #5960
• State rank: #460 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Bellport

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #16345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bellport, NY
• City population: 9,236
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.23%
• Current HPI: 421.2165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-29 Listed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-29 Listed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,517 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.