8520 Lake Dr

Cedar Hill Lakes, MO 63016

$149,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1949 · Other · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$23
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $71/mo
• Annual: $858/yr
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.06%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($858/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#778 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grandview R-II (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #205 of 324 in MO (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grandview Elem. (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 230 students, 51% FRL); Grandview Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #291 of 391 statewide, top 76%, 158 students, 41% FRL); Grandview High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 261 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.