200 Padre Blvd #1315

South Padre Island, TX 78597

$474,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,627/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,486
• Tax + insurance: −$856
• HOA: −$1,300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-2,567/mo
• Annual: $-30,801/yr
• Cap rate: -0.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.61%
• DSCR: -0.01
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $132,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $474k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (78.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (44.6% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (78.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,077 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 35% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: 580 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.0% vs local median 1.8% in South Padre Island — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,627/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.