200 Padre Blvd #1315 · South Padre Island, TX 78597

$443,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · Condo · 194 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition $307/sqft · 40% below area Est $741k · 40% under $1300/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This condominium boasts an outstanding design featuring three bedrooms and three bathrooms, along with a private balcony that offers breathtaking views of the pool, bay, and sunsets, as well as a perfect spot to enjoy fireworks. The condo is equipped with upgraded tile flooring, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and the comfortable furniture is included. The gated resort provides a sense of security and peace of mind, complete with complimentary covered garage parking. The impressive pool facilities include a lazy river, sunbathing areas and a double hot tub. The resort is equipped with a clubhouse, gym, picnic tables, charcoal grills, playground and ample grassy spaces.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Gated resort
• Granite countertops

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• UPGRADED TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GATED RESORT
• IMPRESSIVE POOL FACILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $443k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (37.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.8% in South Padre Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,077 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 35% district-wide (49 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 688 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,168/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,698 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $741,311
• List price: $443,000
• Delta: -40.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Padre Blvd #201	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (-4%)	5mo	$585,000	$421	78
310 Padre Blvd #403	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,361 (-6%)	5mo	$685,000	$503	75
404 Padre Blvd #1007	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+5%)	1mo	$655,000	$432	70
110 Padre Blvd #305	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-9%)	3mo	$515,000	$394	68
400 Padre Blvd #9152	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,311 (-9%)	4mo	$650,000	$496	56
334 Padre Blvd #1500	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+20%)	4mo	$855,000	$496	51
404 Padre Blvd #1004	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,235 (-14%)	5mo	$480,000	$389	46
708 Padre Blvd #1504	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,172 (-19%)	7mo	$584,900	$499	34
2100 Gulf Blvd	1.26mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-15%)	6mo	$640,000	$522	31
2100 Gulf Blvd #803	1.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-15%)	0mo	$575,000	$469	31
2401 Gulf Blvd #212	1.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,102 (-24%)	5mo	$349,000	$317	27
115 E Marlin St Unit D	1.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (-22%)	5mo	$435,000	$385	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-143,200
• Equity at exit: $66,053

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-214,150
• Equity at exit: $38,303

Cash invested: $124,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 4 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78597

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 688
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$554 /mo · $6,645/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-1,135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,605

Max offer price $278,698

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-829	-5% $-982	+0% $-1,135	+5% $-1,289	+10% $-1,442
Rent	-10% $-1,465	-5% $-1,300	+0% $-1,135	+5% $-971	+10% $-806
Rate	-1.0pp $-912	-0.5pp $-1,023	base $-1,135	+0.5pp $-1,250	+1.0pp $-1,367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,750
• Closing costs: $13,290
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Padre Blvd Unit 1372339P South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,507	$3.77	162d	1	0.13mi
310A Padre Blvd Apt 801 South Padre Island, TX	3.0	2.5	1748	$7,500	$4.29	10d	1	0.19mi
600 Padre Blvd Unit B201 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$2,800	$3.01	47d	1	0.51mi
111 Harbor St Unit 1 South Padre Island, TX	3.0	3.0	1749	$5,500	$3.14	10d	1	0.91mi
111 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 201 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$2,500	$2.69	154d	1	0.97mi
111 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 401 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$2,351	$2.53	0d	1	0.97mi
102 W Corral St #2 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	992	$1,900	$1.92	41d	1	1.15mi
102 W Corral St #3 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,750	$1.76	28d	1	1.15mi
102 W Corral St #3 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,750	$1.76	0d	1	1.15mi
102 W Corral St #2 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	992	$1,900	$1.92	8d	1	1.15mi
2401 Gulf Blvd #110 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,500	$2.27	6d	1	1.42mi
2500 Gulf Blvd Unit 102 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$3,000	$2.61	5d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building name: Gulf Point Condominiums
• HOA & community: HOA with a monthly fee of $1,300Community amenities include pool and tennis courts

Exterior

• Security: Gated community
• Home design: Residential condominiumLocated in Gulfpoint I subdivisionGated community with clubhouse
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: 3 full bathrooms

HOA detail $1,300/mo · $15,600/yr condo

• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $443,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $443,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $443,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $443,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $443,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $443,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $443,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $443,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $443,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $443,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $443,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $443,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $443,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $443,000 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $443,000 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $443,000 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $443,000 Active 177 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $443,000 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $443,000 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $443,000 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $443,000 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $443,000 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $443,000 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $443,000 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $443,000 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $443,000 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $443,000 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $443,000 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $443,000 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $443,000 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $443,000 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $443,000 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $443,000 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $443,000 Active 160 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $443,000 Active 159 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $443,000 Active 158 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $443,000 Active 157 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    price $443,000 Active 156 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $459,000 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $459,000 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $459,000 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $459,000 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $459,000 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $459,000 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $459,000 Active 149 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $459,000 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $459,000 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $459,000 Active 146 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $459,000 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,815
• − Property taxes: −$6,645
• − Insurance: −$3,012
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,001
• − Management: −$4,001
• − HOA: −$15,600
• − Depreciation: −$12,887
• Taxable loss: −$20,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,205–$21,615 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo is ready for immediate occupancy, featuring a private balcony with stunning views and a fully equipped kitchen. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the comfortable furnishings and the resort-style amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Point Isabel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835250
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,115
• Composite: 18.78/100
• National rank: #8871
• State rank: #756 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — South Padre Island

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #19107

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Padre Island, TX
• County: Cameron County · 441,603 people
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,935
• Household income: $68,421
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.59%
• Current HPI: 425.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building name: Gulf Point Condominiums
• HOA & community: HOA with a monthly fee of $1,300Community amenities include pool and tennis courts

Exterior

• Security: Gated community
• Home design: Residential condominiumLocated in Gulfpoint I subdivisionGated community with clubhouse
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Outdoor pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Interior features: 3 full bathrooms

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $474,000 SPIBOR