1433 Magnolia Dr

College Station, TX 77840

$292,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,373/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,178/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $82,012

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $293k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,373/mo this rent would consume 94% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 8224% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.