1433 Magnolia Dr · College Station, TX 77840

$292,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 240 Days on market

Built 1972 8,002 sqft lot $170/sqft · 6% below area Est $311k · 6% under ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Spacious closets
• Basketball court

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COZY FIREPLACE
• TILE FLOORS
• SPACIOUS CLOSETS
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $293k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,373/mo this rent would consume 94% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 8224% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,253 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,588
• List price: $292,900
• Delta: -5.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1408 Magnolia Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,822 (+5%)	14mo	$269,900	$148	75
1803 Springhaven Cir	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,890 (+9%)	13mo	$379,900	$201	52
1207 Westover St	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,865 (+8%)	24mo	$289,900	$155	52
1505 Francis Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,940 (+12%)	11mo	$389,000	$201	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,983
• Equity at exit: $43,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-24,031
• Equity at exit: $25,325

Cash invested: $82,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77840

• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,373 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,773/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $260,835

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,225
• Closing costs: $8,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1428 Magnolia Dr College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,400	$1.59	43d	1	0.08mi
1208 Bayou Woods Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$2,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.24mi
1201 Harvey Rd College Station, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$1,350	$1.68	13d	133	0.25mi
1803 Fernhaven Cir Unit 1328088P College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	2077	$4,163	$2.00	13d	1	0.56mi
2700 Horse Haven Ln College Station, TX	4.0	5.0	1759	$2,600	$1.48	43d	1	0.86mi
415 Forest Dr College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1496	$630	$0.42	43d	1	0.93mi
146 Forest Dr College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	13d	1	0.97mi
901 Camellia Ct Unit B College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,275	$1.16	13d	1	1.04mi
533 Forest Drive Loop College Station, TX	3.0	3.5	1456	$1,675	$1.15	13d	1	1.04mi
214 Sterling St Unit 1328049P College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$3,260	$2.09	13d	1	1.07mi
810 Camellia Ct Unit 1328089P College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$4,917	$3.78	21d	1	1.11mi
287 Estates Cir Unit 1071599P College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	2098	$7,118	$3.39	21d	1	1.11mi
2409 Colgate Cir College Station, TX	5.0	3.0	1870	$750	$0.40	43d	1	1.20mi
2330 Autumn Chase Loop Unit B College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	1.27mi
1001 Krenek Tap Rd College Station, TX	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1572	$2,200	$1.40	43d	2	1.27mi
615 Pasler St College Station, TX	3.0	1.5	1061	$1,600	$1.51	13d	1	1.32mi
818 Nimitz St College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,395	$1.23	43d	1	1.32mi
101 Winter Park Unit A College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1347	$2,250	$1.67	13d	1	1.38mi
1611 Armistead St Unit 1344599P College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	2002	$4,440	$2.22	21d	1	1.44mi
1601 Holleman Dr College Station, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,650	$1.86	43d	5	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $292,900 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,900 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,900 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $292,900 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $292,900 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $292,900 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $292,900 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $292,900 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   price $293,900 838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (838 chars)

   Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

10. 2025-12-15
    price $294,900 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

11. 2025-11-27
    price $297,900 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

12. 2025-11-17
    price $298,900 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

13. 2025-11-04
    price $299,900 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

14. 2025-10-28
    price $304,900 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

15. 2025-10-13
    listed $309,900 Active 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Welcome to 1433 Magnolia Drive, a warm and inviting home nestled in the heart of College Station in the popular Plantation Oaks neighborhood. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers just under 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space with a layout that flows easily from room to room. You’ll love the cozy fireplace, tile floors in the main areas, and the spacious closets throughout. Step outside to enjoy the fenced backyard, perfect for gatherings or a quiet evening at home. With an attached two-car garage and a location right across from a neighborhood park and basketball court, this home offers both convenience and charm—just minutes from great restaurants, Post Oak Mall, and Texas A & M University. Perfect for investors or owner occupants, Could be available to owner occupy SUMMER 2026. ROOF REPLACED IN 2026

16. 2008-11-24
    soldstatus
17. 2006-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,773 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,360 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 12.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,407
• − Property taxes: −$4,773
• − Insurance: −$1,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,278
• − Management: −$2,278
• − Depreciation: −$8,521
• Taxable loss: −$7,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,740
• After-tax cash flow: $-438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 54,864
• Household income: $30,377
• Rent vs Own: 89.7% rent · 10.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8224.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 11% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.15%
• Current HPI: 195.2885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.24%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $293,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $294,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $297,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $298,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $299,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $304,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $309,900 BCSRMLS
• 2008-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,773 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.