40-44 San Carlos St

San Francisco, CA 94110

$1,139,000B+

15 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,825 sqft · Built 1908 · MultiFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,973
• Tax + insurance: −$852
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,861
• Net cashflow: $3,938/mo
• Annual: $47,251/yr
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.82%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $318,920

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.14M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.14M).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.04M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.04M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $210k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $319k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.2% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent per unit runs 34% of the median local income ($158k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Moderate: exterior siding — The siding is in fair condition, with some discoloration and wear.
• Minor: flooring — The flooring appears to be average, with some wear and tear.
• Minor: interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint appear to be in average condition, with some wear.
• Minor: HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be in average condition, with some wear and tear.
• Minor: landscaping — The landscaping and curb appeal appear to be fair, with some overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance.