40-44 San Carlos St · San Francisco, CA 94110

$1,229,000

15 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,825 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1908 2,000 sqft lot $435/sqft · 19% below area Est $1513k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Located between Mission & Valencia Sts. Duplex in the front and a cute little cottage in the back. Both buildings have a tall basement. Each unit has its own water and PG & E meter

Key facts

• Basement
• Cottage
• Duplex

Tags

• DUPLEX
• COTTAGE
• BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.23M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($56k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.23M).
• Recommended offer: $1.19M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,254/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $344k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.19M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $120k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,192,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.45%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,513,113
• List price: $1,229,000
• Delta: -18.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $177,190
• Equity at exit: $183,248

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $900,772
• Equity at exit: $106,261

Cash invested: $344,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94110

• Rents YoY: 14.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,445
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,524/yr
• Insurance: −$512
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,203
• Net cashflow: $4,650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,368

Max offer price $1,229,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,346	-5% $4,998	+0% $4,650	+5% $4,302	+10% $3,954
Rent	-10% $3,445	-5% $4,048	+0% $4,650	+5% $5,253	+10% $5,855
Rate	-1.0pp $5,269	-0.5pp $4,963	base $4,650	+0.5pp $4,332	+1.0pp $4,008

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$15,255
Total (3 units)			$15,254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $307,250
• Closing costs: $36,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,229,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,229,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $1,229,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,349,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,349,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    status Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Located between Mission & Valencia Sts. Duplex in the front and a cute little cottage in the back. Both buildings have a tall basement. Each unit has its own water and PG & E meter

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,349,000 Active 192-char remark

    Show marketing remark (192 chars)

    Located between Mission & Valencia Sts. Duplex in the front and a cute little cottage in the back. Both buildings have a tall basement. Each unit has its own water and PG & E meter

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,524 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,340 · $778/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,817/yr (+$401/mo · 106.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$68,843
• − Property taxes: −$4,524
• − Insurance: −$6,943
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,644
• − Management: −$14,644
• − Depreciation: −$35,753
• Taxable income: $37,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,048
• After-tax cash flow: $46,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 66,865
• Household income: $158,351
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2732.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1385.62%
• Current HPI: 267.2424
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.54%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,349,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,524 · +83.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.