2939 Squaw Valley Rd

McCloud, CA 96057

$425,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$529
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-352/mo
• Annual: $-4,222/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (28.3% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $305k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#636 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mccloud Elementary (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #856 of 1,571 statewide, top 57%, 48 students, 79% FRL); Mccloud High (10 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 12% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $352k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.