663 Audubon Rd

Ernstville, MD 25427

$220,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,532/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-118/mo
• Annual: $-1,414/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#480 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #43 of 55 in WV (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant View Elementary School (math 34% / reading 24%, grade F, #225 of 377 statewide, top 68%, 121 students, 0% FRL); Warm Springs Middle School (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #91 of 109 statewide, top 85%, 480 students, 0% FRL); Berkeley Springs High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #21 of 110 statewide, top 26%, 621 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 13 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $220k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.