663 Audubon Rd · Ernstville, MD 25427

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1973 1.81 ac lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin in Sleepy Hollow subdivision. Nature abounds on this 1.8 acre lot! Walking distance from the private lake that includes beach area. Enjoy kayaking, boating, fishing, and swimming. Won't last long, schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• 1.81 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Sleepy Hollow Lake with canoe/kayak and swimming access; Road surfaces are paved and gravel; Outside city limits
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $400; HOA maintains roads; Community amenities include common grounds, lake, picnic area, water/lake privileges, and beach

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (6 spaces); Off-street parking; Total of 6 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; On-site septic; Propane service; Electric service
• Home design: Detached structure; Estimated major remodel in 2026
• Construction: Frame construction; Pilings foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Outbuilding(s); Private beach; Deck(s); Porch(es); Navigable water access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units (electric); Propane heating (leased); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Water treatment system; Open floor plan; Combination kitchen and living area; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#480 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Morgan County Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #43 of 55 in WV (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant View Elementary School (math 34% / reading 24%, grade F, #225 of 377 statewide, top 68%, 121 students, 0% FRL); Warm Springs Middle School (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #91 of 109 statewide, top 85%, 480 students, 0% FRL); Berkeley Springs High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #21 of 110 statewide, top 26%, 621 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Morgan County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $220k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,236 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $112,216
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $336,173
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25427

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $601/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $199,179

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-56	+0% $-118	+5% $-180	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-178	+0% $-118	+5% $-57	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-62	base $-118	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $220,000
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2026-04-17
   historical $225,000
5. 2019-07-15
   soldstatus $80,000
6. 2019-06-26
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin in Sleepy Hollow subdivision. Nature abounds on this 1.8 acre lot! Walking distance from the private lake that includes beach area. Enjoy kayaking, boating, fishing, and swimming. Won't last long, schedule your appointment today!

7. 2019-05-21
   status Pending 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin in Sleepy Hollow subdivision. Nature abounds on this 1.8 acre lot! Walking distance from the private lake that includes beach area. Enjoy kayaking, boating, fishing, and swimming. Won't last long, schedule your appointment today!

8. 2019-04-08
   price $84,500 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin in Sleepy Hollow subdivision. Nature abounds on this 1.8 acre lot! Walking distance from the private lake that includes beach area. Enjoy kayaking, boating, fishing, and swimming. Won't last long, schedule your appointment today!

9. 2019-03-15
   price $90,000 269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (269 chars)

   Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin in Sleepy Hollow subdivision. Nature abounds on this 1.8 acre lot! Walking distance from the private lake that includes beach area. Enjoy kayaking, boating, fishing, and swimming. Won't last long, schedule your appointment today!

10. 2018-12-20
    listed $97,500 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Well maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath cabin in Sleepy Hollow subdivision. Nature abounds on this 1.8 acre lot! Walking distance from the private lake that includes beach area. Enjoy kayaking, boating, fishing, and swimming. Won't last long, schedule your appointment today!

11. 2014-04-14
    historical 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

12. 2014-04-14
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

13. 2014-04-14
    soldstatus $39,000

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

14. 2014-04-06
    status Contract 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

15. 2014-04-05
    historical
16. 2014-04-04
    status Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

17. 2014-03-14
    status Contract 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

18. 2014-02-15
    listed $39,000 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

19. 2014-02-15
    listed $39,000

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    WV Mountains, Sleepy Creek Mountain, Cabin w/ 2 Bds/1 Ba, situated on 1.81 acs in Sleepy Hollow. Surrounded by Nature , enjoy the private Lake & Beach, Hiking, swimming, fishing & Hunting! Enjoy your own personal retreat & getaway from the hustle & bustle of everyday living! Get ready for Summer!

20. 2014-01-27
    historical
21. 2014-01-27
    historical
22. 2013-11-08
    listed Active
23. 2013-11-07
    listed $49,000
24. 2012-09-28
    historical Withdrawn
25. 2012-09-28
    historical
26. 2012-08-03
    listed Active
27. 2012-08-03
    listed $59,900
28. 2012-04-01
    historical Expired
29. 2012-04-01
    historical
30. 2011-10-14
    status Active
31. 2011-10-01
    historical Expired
32. 2011-09-10
    status Active
33. 2011-08-26
    status Contract
34. 2011-03-26
    listed Active
35. 2011-03-26
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$899/yr (+$75/mo · 149.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$601
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400990
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,255
• Composite: 22.75/100
• National rank: #8033
• State rank: #43 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ernstville

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #26861

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Berkeley County
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,595
• Household income: $87,184
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 120.0

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,350 people
• By 2030: 17,005 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 15,939 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 14,775 · -14.8%
• By 2075: 12,773 · -26.4%
• By 2100: 10,795 · -37.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.6) · D 21.4% · R 77.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -23.5pp · 2024: -55.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.6 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+23.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.42%
• Current HPI: 270.4542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+266.7% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-26 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-08 Price Changed $84,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-15 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-20 Listed $97,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-04-14 Sold (MLS) $39,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-14 Sold (MLS) $39,000 MRIS
• 2014-04-06 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-04-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-04 Relisted — MRIS
• 2014-03-14 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-02-15 Listed $39,000 MRIS
• 2014-02-15 Listed $39,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-01-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-08 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-11-07 Listed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-09-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-09-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-08-03 Listed — MRIS
• 2012-08-03 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-04-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-14 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-10-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-09-10 Relisted — MRIS
• 2011-08-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-03-26 Listed — MRIS
• 2011-03-26 Listed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $601 · +26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.