1605 Mountain Valley Cir

Cumming, GA 30040

$470,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-502/mo
• Annual: $-6,021/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $131,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (37.7% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $293k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 896 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $470k implies a 385% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.