1605 Mountain Valley Cir · Cumming, GA 30040

$470,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1983 1.12 ac lot $217/sqft · 7% above area Est $671k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY!!! Close to shopping and schools. This home has been added onto and has 3314sq.ft. It is on 1.12 acres and the lot is level

Key facts

• 1.12 acres
• Close to schools
• Level lot

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• 1.12 ACRES
• LEVEL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 896 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $470k implies a 385% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,749 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $670,947
• List price: $470,000
• Delta: -29.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-112,262
• Equity at exit: $70,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-155,478
• Equity at exit: $40,637

Cash invested: $131,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30040

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 896
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,847/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,563

Max offer price $381,366

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,500
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1825 Dahlia Dr Cumming, GA	4.0	3.0	2949	$2,895	$0.98	5d	1	1.32mi
3538 Old Towne Ln Cumming, GA	4.0	3.5	2580	$2,950	$1.14	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $470,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $470,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $470,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $470,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $470,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $470,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $470,000 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!!! Close to shopping and schools. This home has been added onto and has 3314sq.ft. It is on 1.12 acres and the lot is level

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $490,000 New 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    MOVE IN READY!!! Close to shopping and schools. This home has been added onto and has 3314sq.ft. It is on 1.12 acres and the lot is level

17. 2017-08-11
    soldstatus $97,000
18. 2007-04-03
    soldstatus $112,000
19. 2007-03-13
    soldstatus $112,000 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    AGENT/OWNER, 3/2 MOBILE HOME, 2 MI FROM DOWNTOWN CUMMING, FABULOUS LEVEL CORNER, HUGE GARAGE! PERFECT RENTAL POTENTIAL FOR INVESTORS, GREAT HOME FOR 1ST TIME HOMEBUYERS, NEW SIDING/WINDOWS/INTERIOR DOORS & PAINT/FLOOR COVERINGS, RENOVATIONS ALMOST COMPLETE

20. 2006-11-02
    listed $119,900 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    AGENT/OWNER, 3/2 MOBILE HOME, 2 MI FROM DOWNTOWN CUMMING, FABULOUS LEVEL CORNER, HUGE GARAGE! PERFECT RENTAL POTENTIAL FOR INVESTORS, GREAT HOME FOR 1ST TIME HOMEBUYERS, NEW SIDING/WINDOWS/INTERIOR DOORS & PAINT/FLOOR COVERINGS, RENOVATIONS ALMOST COMPLETE

21. 1999-09-07
    soldstatus $74,900
22. 1988-06-24
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,324 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,477/yr (+$206/mo · 134.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$1,847
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,810
• − Management: −$2,810
• − Depreciation: −$13,673
• Taxable loss: −$14,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth County
• NCES district ID: 1302220
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,763
• Composite: 56.54/100
• National rank: #1151
• State rank: #5 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cumming

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #3797

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Forsyth County · 198,629 people
• City population: 198,629
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 82,532
• Household income: $137,211
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1056.0

Population outlook (Forsyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 294,519 people
• By 2030: 336,546 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 421,220 · +43.0%
• By 2050: 502,754 · +70.7%
• By 2075: 683,179 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 792,174 · +169.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Forsyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.9% · R 66.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.9pp toward D · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.76%
• Current HPI: 277.8697
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1046.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $470,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $490,000 GAMLS
• 2017-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-13 Sold (MLS) $112,000 FMLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $119,900 FMLS
• 1999-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 1988-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,847 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.