3478 Conifer Cir

Huber Heights, OH 45424

$229,500D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,564 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-71/mo
• Annual: $-856/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $64,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-856/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#436 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huber Heights City (suburban): math 29% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #544 of 656 in OH (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 194 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Huber Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.