3478 Conifer Cir · Huber Heights, OH 45424

$229,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,564 sqft · Townhouse · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $242k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Heathermere Woods - The lowest-priced new homes with scenic surroundings, 3 bedrooms and attached garages in Huber Heights. •Brand-new modern townhome filled with natural light and designed for today's busy lifestyle •Open-concept main level with durable LVP flooring and seamless flow for living and entertaining •Stylish kitchen featuring Stainless Steel Appliances and White Cabinetry •Bright dining area perfect for everyday meals or hosting guests •3 spacious bedrooms upstairs, including a private owner's suite •Owner's suite with its own full bath for added comfort •Versatile entry-level flex space-ideal for a home office, gym, or playroo

Key facts

• Protected parking
• Flex space
• Community greenspace

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• FLEX SPACE
• INCLUDED PATIO
• COMMUNITY GREENSPACE
• PROTECTED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $229,500

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Central air (cooling)
• Home design: Spec new construction — Juniper floor plan with finished basement

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area (1,564 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-856/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Huber Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#436 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huber Heights City (suburban): math 29% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #544 of 656 in OH (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 194 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $191,733 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,420
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3439 Conifer Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,564 (0%)	10mo	$242,000	$155	88
6528 Marino	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-2%)	14mo	$237,000	$155	51
6519 Marino	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (-8%)	13mo	$229,000	$159	37
6520 Greeley Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (-9%)	13mo	$201,550	$142	34
6520 Marino	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-15%)	8mo	$200,000	$150	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-46,903
• Equity at exit: $34,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-66,762
• Equity at exit: $19,843

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45424

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,442/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $219,178

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4034 Hemlock Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,200	$1.68	2d	1	0.02mi
4028 Hemlock Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1312	$2,200	$1.68	2d	1	0.02mi
5225 Buckner Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,300	$1.20	2d	1	0.50mi
5257 Powell Rd Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1155	$1,850	$1.60	43d	1	0.50mi
5595 Shady Oak St Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	2d	1	0.53mi
5512 Shady Oak St Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1404	$1,645	$1.17	43d	1	0.56mi
5131 Kuder Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	2d	1	0.66mi
5020 Packard Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	19d	1	0.73mi
5269 Harshmanville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,525	$1.41	43d	1	0.84mi
4541 Kapp Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	2d	1	0.88mi
5896 Harshmanville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,345	$1.26	11d	1	1.07mi
5784 Traymore Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,525	$1.41	43d	1	1.08mi
4437 E Kitridge Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	2040	$1,800	$0.88	43d	1	1.25mi
4506 Powell Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,500 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 664-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $229,500 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$3,442
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$4,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huber Heights City
• NCES district ID: 3904875
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,943
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5499
• State rank: #544 of 656 in OH

Livability — Huber Heights

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #7187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Huber Heights, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 50,725
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 50,725
• Household income: $80,605
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 911.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.44%
• Current HPI: 161.8116
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.23%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B