21236 County Road 1456

San Patricio, TX 78368

$149,900C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Active · 322 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$444
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $516/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($516/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,130 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear visible on the siding.
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but inspection is recommended.
• Major: landscaping — Sparse and dry, indicating lack of maintenance.