21236 County Road 1456 · San Patricio, TX 78368

$149,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 320 Days on market

Built 1942 Fair condition 3.00 ac lot $55/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Country Living. Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on 3 acres. Address- 21236 Rainsong Way, Mathis Texas. And/or known as 21236 CR 1456, Mathis Texas.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($516/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,130 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,161
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -60.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5768 Mockingbird	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,432 (-11%)	9mo	$265,000	$109	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,256
• Equity at exit: $79,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $98,073
• Equity at exit: $132,752

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$382 /mo · $4,584/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,558

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 315 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 302 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $149,900 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Great Country Living. Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on 3 acres. Address- 21236 Rainsong Way, Mathis Texas. And/or known as 21236 CR 1456, Mathis Texas.

17. 2025-11-19
    price $169,900 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Great Country Living. Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on 3 acres. Address- 21236 Rainsong Way, Mathis Texas. And/or known as 21236 CR 1456, Mathis Texas.

18. 2025-08-02
    listed $199,900 Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Great Country Living. Spacious 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on 3 acres. Address- 21236 Rainsong Way, Mathis Texas. And/or known as 21236 CR 1456, Mathis Texas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,584 · $382/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,584 · $382/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$4,584
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear visible on the siding.
• Major roof — No visible damage, but inspection is recommended.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and dry, indicating lack of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and property value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance the property's aesthetic and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear visible on the siding.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but inspection is recommended.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and dry, indicating lack of maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance the property's aesthetic and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Patricio

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1130
• US rank: #19974

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Patricio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,900 CBMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $169,900 CBMLS
• 2025-08-02 Listed $199,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+44.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,584 · +44.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.