1669 Elk Run Dr

Fayetteville, NC 28312

$322,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,053 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,159/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,693
• Tax + insurance: −$538
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-555/mo
• Annual: $-6,663/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $90,412

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (33.2% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.