1669 Elk Run Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28312

$322,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,053 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot Est $322k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents The Coleman D Floorplan at Lexington Woods South. THIS HOME IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION, ESTIMATED COMPLETION IN JUNE. A charming covered porch welcomes you into an inviting entryway, with a dedicated dining or flex area conveniently located at the front of the home. Designed with comfort and openness in mind, this residence features 9-foot ceilings on both levels, enhancing the bright and spacious atmosphere. The main level flows seamlessly into the family room and kitchen, offering an ideal setup for gatherings and daily living. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with 36-inch cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a generous island that works well for

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 9 foot ceilings
• Kitchen island

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• 9 FOOT CEILINGS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• PLUSH CARPETING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area listed as 2,053; Directions available; Located in Cumberland County, postal code 28312; Not a senior community
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Neighbors & Associates); HOA fee $350 annually; HOA fee does not include utilities or services

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Additional open parking (2 spaces); Driveway; Paved parking; Total parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story house; Site-built construction
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as model 'Coleman D'
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; No common walls; Lot approximately 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (includes upper level laundry mention in Laundry & utility)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Zoned heating; Central air conditioning; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Walk-in shower; Water closet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-555 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,854 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,321
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1669 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,053 (0%)	0mo	$322,865	$157	100
1644 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,053 (0%)	4mo	$324,900	$158	95
1612 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,053 (0%)	9mo	$322,995	$157	91
1620 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,053 (0%)	9mo	$317,440	$155	89
1664 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+9%)	1mo	$339,900	$152	78
1648 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,225 (+8%)	3mo	$305,150	$137	77
1613 Elk Run (lot 138) Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+9%)	10mo	$339,495	$152	72
1632 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+9%)	8mo	$332,295	$149	72
1628 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-12%)	9mo	$322,860	$179	64
1918 Fireside Dr E #1	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-12%)	13mo	$306,890	$170	55
1594 Old Barn Rd	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,770 (-14%)	13mo	$306,210	$173	47
1918 Fireside Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (-12%)	13mo	$306,890	$170	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $140,547
• Equity at exit: $290,894

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $441,796
• Equity at exit: $627,324

Cash invested: $90,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,693
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,844/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,861

Max offer price $242,555

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,725
• Closing costs: $9,687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1303 Middle Rd Eastover, NC	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,195	$1.13	23d	1	0.74mi
848 Bellingham Way Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,100	$0.91	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $322,900
3. 2026-04-17
   price $322,865
4. 2026-04-16
   price $322,860
5. 2026-04-11
   price $322,850
6. 2026-04-10
   price $322,900
7. 2026-04-09
   price $322,945
8. 2026-04-08
   price $322,950
9. 2026-03-23
   price $322,900
10. 2026-03-14
    price $325,100
11. 2026-03-11
    price $325,050
12. 2026-03-07
    price $325,250
13. 2026-02-28
    price $325,280
14. 2026-02-26
    price $325,330
15. 2026-02-19
    price $325,230
16. 2026-02-03
    listed $325,330 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,087
• − Property taxes: −$4,844
• − Insurance: −$1,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,393
• Taxable loss: −$12,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,007
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• City population: 226,118
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $322,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $322,865 TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $322,860 TMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $322,850 TMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $322,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $322,945 TMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $322,950 TMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $322,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $325,100 TMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $325,050 TMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $325,250 TMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $325,280 TMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $325,330 TMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $325,230 TMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $325,330 TMLS