33060 Cherry Hill Rd

Garden City, MI 48135

$244,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 981 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$314
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-341/mo
• Annual: $-4,094/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $68,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (35.0% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $159k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#53 in MI, #1,047 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-.
• Garden City Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #365 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 19 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $245k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 5.8% in Garden City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.