30891 Excelsior St

Lucerne, MO 64667

$179,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · Built 1880 · Other · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,279/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-801/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-801/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#594 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Princeton R-V (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #158 of 535 in MO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Princeton R-V Elem. (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 184 students, 43% FRL); Princeton R-V Jr.-Sr. High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 180 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.
• Mercer County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.