30891 Excelsior St · Lucerne, MO 64667

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,678 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1880 1.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a piece of history with this charming 1½-story home, originally built in 1880 as a church and thoughtfully transformed into a one-of-a-kind residence full of character and warmth. Situated on just over 1 acre in a quiet, peaceful country setting, this property offers the perfect blend of historic charm and modern comfort. Inside, you’ll fall in love with the beautiful wood floors, antique solid wood doors, and original hardware that add timeless appeal throughout. The main level features a cozy living room, an eat-in kitchen with custom wood cabinetry and included appliances, a spacious master bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath, an additional bedroom, second fu

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Large workshop
• Detached garage

Tags

• CUSTOM WOOD CABINETRY
• MATURE ENGLISH WALNUT TREES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• METAL ROOF
• FORCED AIR PROPANE FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-801/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#594 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Princeton R-V (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #158 of 535 in MO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Princeton R-V Elem. (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 184 students, 43% FRL); Princeton R-V Jr.-Sr. High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 180 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mercer County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,877 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $17,338
• Equity at exit: $80,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $67,593
• Equity at exit: $124,662

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64667

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $703/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $168,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-16	+0% $-67	+5% $-118	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-117	+0% $-67	+5% $-16	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-21	base $-67	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $703 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,042/yr (+$87/mo · 148.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$703
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$966
• After-tax cash flow: $165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton R-V
• NCES district ID: 2925590
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,232
• Composite: 42.1/100
• National rank: #7042
• State rank: #158 of 535 in MO

Livability — Lucerne

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #594
• US rank: #20955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 270

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,512 people
• By 2030: 3,383 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 3,134 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 2,894 · -17.6%
• By 2075: 2,397 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 1,787 · -49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+74.1 2016: R+73.0 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $179,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $703 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.