16702 Sonoma Breeze Dr

Austin, TX 78653

$247,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,108/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,869/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $69,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joseph Gilbert El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 669 students, 91% FRL); Dailey Middle (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 834 students, 94% FRL); Del Valle H S (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,354 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 3,460 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 874 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.