16702 Sonoma Breeze Dr · Austin, TX 78653

$247,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 2,482 sqft lot $184/sqft · 33% below area Est $316k · 22% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this move-in-ready duplex in the highly sought-after Whisper Valley community of Manor, TX, where modern comfort meets sustainable living. Designed with a spacious, open living area and a smart, roommate-friendly floorplan, this home features brand-new luxury vinyl plank flooring, elegant granite countertops, and a built-in audio system perfect for entertaining or everyday enjoyment. A private carport adds convenience, while solar panels and connection to Whisper Valleys geothermal grid offer exceptional energy efficiency and lower utility costs. Located just steps from the amenity center and with quick access to scenic hike and bike trails, this home delivers an active, connected lifestyle in one of Central Texass most innovative communities. Stylish, efficient, and effortlessly livablethis is a rare opportunity you wont want to miss.

Key facts

• Geothermal grid
• Private carport
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BUILT-IN AUDIO SYSTEM
• PRIVATE CARPORT
• SOLAR PANELS
• GEOTHERMAL GRID

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joseph Gilbert El (math 18% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 669 students, 91% FRL); Dailey Middle (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 834 students, 94% FRL); Del Valle H S (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,354 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 3,460 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 874 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,801 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,036
• List price: $247,900
• Delta: -21.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16701 Radiant Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,321 (-2%)	3mo	$310,900	$235	86
17008 Wind Chime Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,403 (+4%)	2mo	$324,900	$232	74
9709 Gladsome Path	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,403 (+4%)	0mo	$324,900	$232	68
16400 Fetching Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (-4%)	3mo	$310,000	$240	64
9316 Gladsome Path	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-15%)	1mo	$289,900	$253	62
10017 Dalliance Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+2%)	12mo	$339,000	$245	62
9509 Demure Dr #4	0.27mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,519 (+13%)	1mo	$319,900	$211	58
16900 Adoro Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	18mo	$325,000	$223	55
9701 Morning Iris Dr	0.23mi	2/2.5	1,188 (-12%)	21mo	$299,900	$252	50
17004 Wind Chime Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,489 (+10%)	21mo	$449,900	$302	48
9601 Balmy Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-15%)	20mo	$373,000	$325	47
9613 Gladsome Path	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,489 (+10%)	20mo	$432,900	$291	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-55,927
• Equity at exit: $36,963

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-84,073
• Equity at exit: $21,434

Cash invested: $69,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $322,400 ($237/sqft)
• Median days on market: 167 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78653

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 874
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,809/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,305

Max offer price $220,393

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-86	+0% $-156	+5% $-226	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-239	+0% $-156	+5% $-72	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-93	base $-156	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,975
• Closing costs: $7,437
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Sonoma Breeze Dr Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1306	$2,500	$1.91	9d	1	0.04mi
9608 Grapevine Leaf Dr Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,250	$1.26	9d	1	0.12mi
9605 Grapevine Leaf Dr Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1383	$2,150	$1.55	73d	1	0.14mi
9615 Morning Iris Dr Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,890	$1.38	73d	1	0.20mi
17204 Adoro Dr Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,700	$1.30	34d	1	0.21mi
9513 Balmy Ln Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1519	$3,320	$2.19	53d	1	0.23mi
9517 Balmy Ln Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1519	$2,925	$1.93	39d	1	0.23mi
17008 Wind Chime Dr Manor, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,895	$2.06	9d	1	0.29mi
16601 E Braker Ln Manor, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,703	$1.71	9d	86	0.33mi
9909 Dalliance Ln Manor, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,100	$1.28	67d	1	0.37mi
16601 Braker Ln Unit 312 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,864	$1.34	10d	1	0.42mi
16601 Braker Ln Unit 711 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,880	$1.35	35d	1	0.42mi
16601 Braker Ln Unit 611 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,514	$1.38	34d	1	0.42mi
16601 Braker Ln Unit 7110 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,449	$1.30	93d	1	0.42mi
16601 Braker Ln Unit 215 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,498	$1.37	10d	1	0.42mi
9616 Whisper Willow Blvd Manor, TX	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,895	$1.43	73d	1	0.45mi
9808 Becoming St Manor, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,350	$1.26	93d	1	0.51mi
10014 Farm to Market Road 973 Unit 1 Manor, TX	2.0	2.0	1139	$1,820	$1.60	73d	1	1.27mi
10014 Farm to Market Road 973 Unit 973 Manor, TX	2.0	2.0	1139	$1,820	$1.60	93d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $247,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $247,900 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $247,900 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $247,900 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $247,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $247,900 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $247,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $247,900 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $247,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $247,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $247,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $247,900 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $247,900 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $247,900 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $247,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $247,900 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $247,900 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $247,900 Active 120 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $247,900 Active 119 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $247,900 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $247,900 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $247,900 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $247,900 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $247,900 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $247,900 Active 112 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $247,900 Active 111 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $247,900 Active 110 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $247,900 Active 108 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $247,900 Active 107 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $247,900 Active 106 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $247,900 Active 105 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $247,900 Active 104 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $247,900 Active 103 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $247,900 Active 102 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $247,900 Active 101 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $247,900 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $247,900 Active 97 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $247,900 Active 96 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $247,900 Active 93 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $247,900 Active 92 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $247,900 Active 91 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $247,900 Active 90 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $247,900 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $247,900 Active 84 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $247,900 Active 83 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,900 Active 82 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,900 Active 79 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,900 Active 78 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,900 Active 77 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,900 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,809 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,809 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,886
• − Property taxes: −$4,809
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$7,212
• Taxable loss: −$6,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $-404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,740–$20,220 screening

This move-in-ready townhouse in Whisper Valley, Manor, TX, is in good condition with fresh paint and landscaping. Minor updates to the exterior and interior would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Freshens the interior and enhances value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph Gilbert El F TX #3,536/4,322 Nat'l #33,283/41,679 Middle Dailey Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Del Valle H S F TX #1,354/1,632 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,291
• Household income: $93,900
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 24% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.30%
• Current HPI: 201.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $250,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $250,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $250,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $269,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $269,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $289,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $289,900 Zillow

Property tax history

+48.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,809 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.