5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,227 sqft ·
Built 1925
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 182 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,524/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$386
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$740
Net cashflow
$1,428/mo
Annual
$17,142/yr
Cap rate
15.56%
Cash-on-cash
33.11%
DSCR
2.47
1% rule
1.91%
Cash to close
$51,772
Investor read
This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $476/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $30k; list at $185k implies a 516% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,524/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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