404 Gilliland Rd

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40245

$225,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $305/mo
• Annual: $3,658/yr
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (5.8% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $212k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tully Elementary (math 35% / reading 49%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 788 students, 38% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 32% / reading 49%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 1,016 students, 46% FRL); Eastern High (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 2,036 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 40% FRL vs 56% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.