2552 Olive Chapel Rd

Apex, NC 27502

$316,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,142 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,639/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax + insurance: −$527
• HOA: −$90
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-189/mo
• Annual: $-2,263/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $88,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $316k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#3 in NC, #380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Olive Chapel Elementary (math 80% / reading 82%, grade A+, #22 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 982 students, 10% FRL); Lufkin Road Middle (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #40 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 995 students, 32% FRL); Apex Friendship High (math 77% / reading 81%, grade A-, #82 of 535 statewide, top 15%, 2,772 students, 10% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Wake County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in Apex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.