2552 Olive Chapel Rd · Apex, NC 27502

$316,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,142 sqft · Townhouse · 41 Days on market

Built 2025 1,742 sqft lot Est $441k · 28% under $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set just minutes from the greenways, trails, and everyday conveniences that make Apex so livable, this brand-new townhome delivers a lifestyle-forward location paired with a rare affordability advantage (NO INVESTORS). From within the neighborhood, residents enjoy direct access to the Reedy Branch Trail, creating an easy connection to miles of walking, running, and biking right outside the door. Outdoor time is part of the routine here, with the American Tobacco Trail and Apex Nature Park just minutes away. Daily errands and dining are simple thanks to nearby Beaver Creek Commons and a conveniently close Publix. When it is time for something more social, Downtown Apex is right down the road

Key facts

• Apex nature park
• Beaver creek commons
• Downtown apex

Tags

• AMERICAN TOBACCO TRAIL
• APEX NATURE PARK
• BEAVER CREEK COMMONS
• CONVENIENTLY CLOSE PUBLIX
• DOWNTOWN APEX
• POOL AND CABANA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in Apex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#3 in NC, #380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Olive Chapel Elementary (math 80% / reading 82%, grade A+, #22 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 982 students, 10% FRL); Lufkin Road Middle (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #40 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 995 students, 32% FRL); Apex Friendship High (math 77% / reading 81%, grade A-, #82 of 535 statewide, top 15%, 2,772 students, 10% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Wake County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,948 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $441,252
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2562 Olive Chapel Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,105 (-2%)	1mo	$296,000	$141	95
2544 Olive Chapel Rd	0.02mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,099 (-2%)	5mo	$439,000	$209	82
2854 Farmhouse Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,184 (+2%)	2mo	$450,000	$206	74
1463 Hasse Ave	0.27mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,099 (-2%)	9mo	$429,000	$204	70
2795 Cassius Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,184 (+2%)	9mo	$420,000	$192	69
2801 Farmhouse Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,184 (+2%)	7mo	$430,000	$197	67
2867 Farmhouse Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,184 (+2%)	2mo	$471,950	$216	67
2803 Farmhouse Dr	0.31mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,184 (+2%)	9mo	$439,000	$201	66
1486 Hasse Ave	0.28mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,099 (-2%)	12mo	$440,000	$210	64
1415 Chrysalis Pl	0.21mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,226 (+4%)	14mo	$456,360	$205	63
1379 Hasse Ave	0.42mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,099 (-2%)	9mo	$457,420	$218	61
1361 Hasse Ave	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,099 (-2%)	9mo	$455,823	$217	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,859
• Equity at exit: $47,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-106,679
• Equity at exit: $27,322

Cash invested: $88,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27502

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$395 /mo · $4,740/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,878

Max offer price $288,707

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,000
• Closing costs: $9,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2919 Sunflower Rd Apex, NC	4.0	3.5	2361	$2,450	$1.04	17d	1	0.66mi
2460 Pecan Ridge Way Apex, NC	3.0	2.5	2067	$2,250	$1.09	17d	1	0.79mi
109 Cranwell Ct Apex, NC	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,300	$1.24	16d	1	0.81mi
1257 Herb Garden Way Apex, NC	4.0	3.5	2100	$2,595	$1.24	17d	1	0.82mi
1295 Herb Garden Way Apex, NC	4.0	3.5	2082	$2,395	$1.15	23d	1	0.84mi
2406 Pecan Ridge Way Apex, NC	3.0	2.5	2158	$2,197	$1.02	23d	1	0.85mi
1169 Little Gem Ln Apex, NC	3.0	3.0	1750	$2,095	$1.20	4d	1	0.86mi
1109 Little Gem Ln Apex, NC	3.0	2.5	1796	$2,190	$1.22	2d	1	0.92mi
1869 Blue Jay Pt Apex, NC	3.0	3.5	2550	$2,595	$1.02	4d	1	1.04mi
1907 Blue Jay Pt Apex, NC	3.0	3.5	2518	$2,595	$1.03	23d	1	1.07mi
1920 Kelly Rd Apex, NC	4.0	3.0	2998	$5,200	$1.73	23d	1	1.20mi
2936 Baronial St Apex, NC	4.0	3.0	2728	$2,895	$1.06	21d	1	1.21mi
2605 Lowell Rd Apex, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$2,205	$2.08	1d	29	1.39mi
1000 Sweetbay Haven Ln Apex, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$3,543	$3.41	1d	84	1.44mi
2251 Chattering Lory Ln Apex, NC	4.0	3.5	1900	$2,225	$1.17	23d	1	1.47mi
2129 Kelly Rd Apex, NC	3.0	3.0	2819	$5,500	$1.95	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-27
   listed $316,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,701
• − Property taxes: −$4,740
• − Insurance: −$1,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$9,193
• Taxable loss: −$7,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $-418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Apex

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #380

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 94,677
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 48,530
• Household income: $143,922
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 6% Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.02%
• Current HPI: 264.8031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-01-28 Contingent — TMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $316,000 TMLS