The Harlow (S135) Plan

Missouri City, TX 77459

$297,790F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,727 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,687
• Tax + insurance: −$536
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-448/mo
• Annual: $-5,381/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $90,087

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer El (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 744 students, 54% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Paint appears slightly faded