326 County Road 3558

Plum Grove, TX 77327

$199,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,623 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-125/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-125/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood El (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.