326 County Road 3558 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$199,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,623 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2019 0.41 ac lot Est $200k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the ideal combination of space and comfort in this one-story, four-bedroom home set on an unrestricted half-acre lot. Conveniently situated near Highway 99 and 59N, this property offers both accessibility and privacy. The open-concept design creates a natural flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with a spacious island, granite countertops, and abundant cabinetry. Enjoy hard surface flooring throughout with no carpet, along with energy-efficient features including double-pane windows. Don’t miss the opportunity to tour this exceptional home. schedule your private showing today.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Spacious island
• Half-acre lot

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• HARD SURFACE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,623 (unit reported by listing)
• HOA & community: Part of Houston El Norte association; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage parking (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Fronting/composition details not specified
• Construction: Built in 2019; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Concrete road surface; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17'8" x 12'11"); Bedroom on first floor (13'10" x 10'2"); Bedroom on first floor (11'9" x 11'6"); Bedroom on first floor (11'10" x 11'2")
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-125/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood El (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,728 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,629
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 County Road 3558	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,623 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$123	95
875 County Road 3550	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,780 (+10%)	14mo	$245,000	$138	58
288 County Road 3554	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,705 (+5%)	4mo	$159,950	$94	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,127
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,890
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$312 /mo · $3,749/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,840

Max offer price $198,060

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	22d	1	1.05mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.06mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,749	$1.03	1d	8	1.32mi
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	22d	1	1.34mi
1176 Road 5102 Cleveland, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2024-09-18
   historical
5. 2024-08-07
   price $235,000
6. 2024-07-02
   listed $240,000 Active
7. 2019-01-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,749 · $312/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,749 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,749
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$831
• After-tax cash flow: $706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,749 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.