702 Autumn Shiloh Dr

Lake Murray of Richland, SC 29036

$405,000D

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,522 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-92/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $113,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-92/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $404k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#102 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chapin Elementary (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #145 of 597 statewide, top 26%, 790 students, 34% FRL); Chapin Middle (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C+, #29 of 229 statewide, top 13%, 991 students, 27% FRL); Chapin High (math 82% / reading 91%, grade A, #7 of 196 statewide, top 4%, 1,615 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 05 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 443 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.