4007 Hill Springs Dr

Houston, TX 77345

$275,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$790
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-574/mo
• Annual: $-6,891/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.95%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-574 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (22.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $174k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greentree El (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 674 students, 23% FRL); Creekwood Middle (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,149 students, 21% FRL); Kingwood H S (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,898 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Humble ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $275k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.