16201 Holly Hill Dr

Accokeek, MD 20601

$244,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,989/yr
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $68,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#353 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $245k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.5% in Accokeek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.