16201 Holly Hill Dr · Accokeek, MD 20601

$244,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1955 1.18 ac lot $188/sqft · 35% below area Est $375k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Detached 2 bedroom 1 bath rambler on 1.18 acres sold in as is condition This property is subject to the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative. The Freddie Mac First Look Initiative limits offers from being entertained during the first 30 days of listing to owner occupant and non-profit buyers. This property is eligible under the Freddie Max First Look initiative through 04/20/2026. Property being sold in as-is condition. Offers should be sent to selling agent. Seller exempt from all disclosures/disclaimers. investor

Key facts

• 1.18 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.5% in Accokeek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#353 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $245k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,153
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -34.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15709 Maple Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-14%)	4mo	$387,500	$346	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,158
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,926
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20601

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,414 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,258/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,204

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15513 Bealle Hill Rd Accokeek, MD	3.0	2.0	1059	$2,500	$2.36	16d	1	0.35mi
9445 Kilwinning Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,245	$1.80	3d	4	1.16mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,900 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 532-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $244,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $259,900 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Detached 2 bedroom 1 bath rambler on 1.18 acres sold in as is condition This property is subject to the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative. The Freddie Mac First Look Initiative limits offers from being entertained during the first 30 days of listing to owner occupant and non-profit buyers. This property is eligible under the Freddie Max First Look initiative through 04/20/2026. Property being sold in as-is condition. Offers should be sent to selling agent. Seller exempt from all disclosures/disclaimers. investor

16. 2026-03-20
    listed $279,900 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    Detached 2 bedroom 1 bath rambler on 1.18 acres sold in as is condition This property is subject to the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative. The Freddie Mac First Look Initiative limits offers from being entertained during the first 30 days of listing to owner occupant and non-profit buyers. This property is eligible under the Freddie Max First Look initiative through 04/20/2026. Property being sold in as-is condition. Offers should be sent to selling agent. Seller exempt from all disclosures/disclaimers. investor

17. 1984-02-15
    soldstatus $60,000
18. 1964-06-17
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,258 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,258 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$4,258
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$1,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$478
• After-tax cash flow: $2,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Accokeek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #19177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Accokeek, MD
• County: Charles County · 103,527 people
• City population: 12,506
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 26,945
• Household income: $117,480
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 369.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 24% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.84%
• Current HPI: 241.1912
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1343.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $279,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1984-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1964-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,258 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.