309 E 39th St

Garden City, ID 83714

$39,900B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$493
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $305/mo
• Annual: $3,664/yr
• Cap rate: 28.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.61%
• DSCR: 4.50
• 1% rule: 3.20%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in ID, #1,264 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F.
• Boise Independent District (urban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 92 in ID (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Elementary School (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #272 of 357 statewide, top 80%, 572 students, 99% FRL); North Junior High School (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B+, #7 of 109 statewide, top 6%, 876 students, 12% FRL); Boise Senior High School (math 58% / reading 75%, grade B, #9 of 169 statewide, top 5%, 1,588 students, 15% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 2.5% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.