309 E 39th St · Garden City, ID 83714

$39,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1976 Est $39k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained, remodeled in the last 7 years, one bedroom, one bath mobile home. A short walk to the Greenbelt in a quiet mobile home park. All appliances included. Fully fenced yard, pets allowed with park approval. Approval from trailer park property management company required prior to purchase. $850/ month lot rent.

Key facts

• Fully fenced yard
• Built 1976
• Listed 10 days

Tags

• REMODELED IN THE LAST 7 YEARS
• SHORT WALK TO THE GREENBELT
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 2.5% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in ID, #1,264 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F.
• Boise Independent District (urban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 92 in ID (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Elementary School (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #272 of 357 statewide, top 80%, 572 students, 99% FRL); North Junior High School (math 54% / reading 71%, grade B+, #7 of 109 statewide, top 6%, 876 students, 12% FRL); Boise Senior High School (math 58% / reading 75%, grade B, #9 of 169 statewide, top 5%, 1,588 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.61%
• DSCR: 4.50
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,592
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 E 40th St #17	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (+11%)	20mo	$43,000	$67	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $15,708
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $50,284
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83714

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $889

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $319	+0% $305	+5% $292	+10% $278
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $255	+0% $305	+5% $356	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $315	base $305	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 E 40th St Garden City, ID	2.0	2.0	678	$1,875	$2.77	5d	1	0.14mi
521 E 41st St Garden City, ID	2.0	1.0–2.0	814	$3,152	$3.87	25d	18	0.31mi
385 E 42nd St Garden City, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$1,295	$1.56	5d	1	0.38mi
4220 N Adams St Garden City, ID	2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,889	$2.46	5d	7	0.42mi
1680 N Phillippi St Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	450	$1,145	$2.54	25d	1	0.76mi
1901 N 32nd St Boise, ID	2.0	1.0	616	$1,245	$2.02	25d	1	0.85mi
2815 Madison Ave Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	423	$1,240	$2.93	5d	3	0.87mi
4632 N Iota Ln Unit 300 Garden City, ID	1.0	1.0	563	$1,375	$2.44	25d	1	0.92mi
4632 N Iota Ln Unit 200 Garden City, ID	1.0	1.0	563	$1,375	$2.44	21d	1	0.92mi
4633 N Iota Ln Unit 201 Garden City, ID	1.0	1.0	563	$1,375	$2.44	25d	1	0.92mi
820 N 25th St Unit 1324051P Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	592	$2,361	$3.99	5d	1	1.08mi
2407 W State St Unit 6 Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	450	$1,195	$2.66	5d	1	1.12mi
603 N 23rd St Unit 6015 Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	500	$1,100	$2.20	5d	1	1.20mi
2419 W Fairview Ave Boise, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	826	$1,026	$1.24	25d	1	1.27mi
1677 N Raymond St Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	685	$1,395	$2.04	25d	1	1.31mi
1689 Shoreline Dr Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	711	$1,574	$2.21	5d	1	1.31mi
3115 Sycamore Dr Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	454	$1,520	$3.35	25d	1	1.35mi
1428 N Raymond St Unit 1408 104 Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	740	$1,195	$1.61	25d	1	1.36mi
1408 N Raymond St Boise, ID	1.0	1.0	740	$1,195	$1.61	25d	1	1.37mi
1105 N Liberty St Boise, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0	727	$1,599	$2.20	16d	4	1.44mi
3304 N Lakeharbor Ln Boise, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,619	$1.62	5d	16	1.44mi
3304 N 36th St Boise, ID	—	1.0	384	$1,145	$2.98	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $39,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $39,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 323-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $3,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$851
• After-tax cash flow: $2,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boise Independent District
• NCES district ID: 1600360
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,135
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3388
• State rank: #36 of 92 in ID

Livability — Garden City

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1264

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden City, ID
• County: Ada County · 522,161 people
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 27,564
• Household income: $87,651
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 557.0

Population outlook (Ada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 535,818 people
• By 2030: 585,751 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 682,435 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 775,818 · +44.8%
• By 2075: 994,458 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 1,148,884 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ada

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 43.4% · R 53.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.2pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.87%
• Current HPI: 339.0701
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+398.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $39,900 FSBO.com
• 2005-12-12 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2005-10-31 Listed $8,000 IMLS