12211 Bliss Ave

Bellemont, AZ 86015

$439,000C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2023 · Condo · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,677/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$106
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$982
• Net cashflow: $929/mo
• Annual: $11,145/yr
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $439k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $426k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.