12211 Bliss Ave · Bellemont, AZ 86015

$439,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Condo public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $274/sqft · at area comps Est $437k · at est. $106/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a quiet and welcoming neighborhood, this well-maintained townhome offers both comfort and convenience. The property is ideal for outdoor lovers, with access to trails, nearby lava tubes, and incredible dark skies perfect for stargazing.Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with an upgraded appliance package, gas fireplace, and stylish finishes throughout. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and beautifully upgraded tile shower. The oversized 2-car garage provides ample space for storage and adventure gear. The community offers a playground, covered picnic areas, a large grassy park, pickleball court, and dog park, all just a short drive from downtown Flagstaff. Whether you're looking for a full-time home or a peaceful escape with forest access this home checks all boxes.

Key facts

• Nearby lava tubes
• Upgraded tile shower
• Access to trails

Tags

• ACCESS TO TRAILS
• NEARBY LAVA TUBES
• UPGRADED APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• GAS FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPGRADED TILE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $439k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $439k).
• Recommended offer: $426k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,384
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: 0.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-10,409
• Equity at exit: $67,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $68,143
• Equity at exit: $41,013

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86015

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,104/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$982
• Net cashflow: $929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,502

Max offer price $439,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on marketlisting id $439,000 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $439,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $439,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-04-14
   listed $449,950 Active 800-char remark

   Show marketing remark (800 chars)

   Located in a quiet and welcoming neighborhood, this well-maintained townhome offers both comfort and convenience. The property is ideal for outdoor lovers, with access to trails, nearby lava tubes, and incredible dark skies perfect for stargazing.Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with an upgraded appliance package, gas fireplace, and stylish finishes throughout. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and beautifully upgraded tile shower. The oversized 2-car garage provides ample space for storage and adventure gear. The community offers a playground, covered picnic areas, a large grassy park, pickleball court, and dog park, all just a short drive from downtown Flagstaff. Whether you're looking for a full-time home or a peaceful escape with forest access this home checks all boxes.

5. 2026-02-10
   listed $449,950 Active 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Located in a quiet and welcoming neighborhood, this well-maintained townhome offers both comfort and convenience. The property is ideal for outdoor lovers, with access to trails, nearby lava tubes, and incredible dark skies perfect for stargazing.Inside, you'll find a spacious layout with an upgraded appliance package, gas fireplace, and stylish finishes throughout. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and beautifully upgraded tile shower. The oversized 2-car garage provides ample space for storage and adventure gear. The community offers a playground, covered picnic areas, a large grassy park, pickleball court, and dog park, all just a short drive from downtown Flagstaff. Whether you're looking for a full-time home or a peaceful escape with forest access this home checks all boxes

6. 2024-06-13
   soldstatus $445,000 Closed
7. 2024-03-17
   price $445,000
8. 2023-12-13
   listed $439,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,897 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$794/yr (+$66/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$2,104
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,490
• − Management: −$4,490
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable income: $4,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $10,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhome in a quiet neighborhood offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ideal for both resale and rental due to its location and upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and enhances comfort
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and enhances comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bellemont

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellemont, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,447

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Native American 23% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 219.9374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $449,950 ARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $449,950 NAZMLS
• 2024-06-13 Sold (MLS) $445,000 NAZMLS
• 2024-03-17 Price Changed $445,000 NAZMLS
• 2023-12-13 Listed $439,999 NAZMLS

Property tax history

+110.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,104 · +696.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.