412 S Beech St

Syracuse, NY 13210

$219,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,090/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $293/mo
• Annual: $3,512/yr
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edward Smith K-8 School (math 13% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,816 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 710 students, 69% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Nottingham High School (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,226 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.2%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,090/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.