9849 Mesa Dr

Houston, TX 77078

$1,200,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 8,490 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Active · 329 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,328/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax + insurance: −$2,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,219
• Net cashflow: $3,816/mo
• Annual: $45,794/yr
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.63%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $336,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.20M).
• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $15,328/mo this rent would consume 471% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.