9849 Mesa Dr · Houston, TX 77078

$1,200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 8,490 sqft · MultiFamily · 329 Days on market

Built 1960 Good condition 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers 15 units in a desirable area of Houston, with new construction happening nearby. It has great potential for renovation, development, or a new project to boost cash flow, or you can keep it as it is. Tenant occupied, please do not disturb.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 328 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,328/mo this rent would consume 471% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,056,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.63%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $356,206
• Equity at exit: $505,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $968,093
• Equity at exit: $754,452

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 97.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,500 /mo · $18,000/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,219
• Net cashflow: $3,816

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,497

Max offer price $1,200,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,645	-5% $4,231	+0% $3,816	+5% $3,402	+10% $2,987
Rent	-10% $2,605	-5% $3,211	+0% $3,816	+5% $4,422	+10% $5,027
Rate	-1.0pp $4,421	-0.5pp $4,121	base $3,816	+0.5pp $3,505	+1.0pp $3,189

15-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 15× units	1	1	$15,330
Total (15 units)			$15,328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 325 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 324 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 316 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 315 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 312 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 308 DOM
13. 2025-07-27
    listed $1,200,000 Active 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    This property offers 15 units in a desirable area of Houston, with new construction happening nearby. It has great potential for renovation, development, or a new project to boost cash flow, or you can keep it as it is. Tenant occupied, please do not disturb.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$18,000
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,715
• − Management: −$14,715
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable income: $28,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,811
• After-tax cash flow: $38,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers great potential for rental or resale with minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves property's visual appeal and marketability ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-27 Listed $1,200,000 HARMLS