2137 Presidio Ct

Danville, CA 94526

$950,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 1979 · Townhouse · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax + insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$566
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $-3,503/mo
• Annual: $-42,038/yr
• Cap rate: 1.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.80%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $266,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-42k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (65.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (62.5% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($922k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $331k (65.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrook Elementary (657 students, 4% FRL); Charlotte Wood Middle (878 students, 5% FRL); San Ramon Valley High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 1,981 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 79% district-wide (-54 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the San Ramon Valley Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 27043% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $950k implies a 494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.