3040 Old 51

Osyka, MS 39657

$120,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,005/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-425/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-425/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#258 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• South Pike School District (rural): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #105 of 130 in MS (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Osyka Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #108 of 375 statewide, top 30%, 185 students, 100% FRL); South Pike Senior High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #170 of 197 statewide, top 90%, 454 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof is damaged and rusted, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major: flooring — The flooring appears to be dirty and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major: interior walls — The interior walls are painted, but the paint appears to be peeling and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.