3040 Old 51 · Osyka, MS 39657

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 1975 Poor condition 3.17 ac lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Update Property Description: Welcome to this A Frame home/camp located at 3040 Old Hwy 51S in Osyka, Mississippi. A great escape from the city! Approximate build date is 1992 per Pike County property records, this two-story property sits on acreage. The structure features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, making it perfect for a small family or couple looking for a peaceful retreat in the countryside. This property was once part of the St. Mary of the Pines (Sisters of Notre Dame) campus and was used as a retreat location. Today it is approximately 0.6 miles from Our Lady of Hope, a short distance on a rural highway. As you approach the property, you'll be greeted by a picturesque setting with plenty of greenery and room to roam. The property has a water well and pump, central heat and air. The exterior of the structure exudes a classic appeal, with A Frame architecture. Remodeling has begun and can be continued by new owners. Upstairs in the loft, you'll find a second bedroom, offering a private and serene retreat. Outside, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and enjoyment. The expansive lot provides endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the tranquility of the countryside. With acreage to call your own, you'll have plenty of room to explore and make memories. Property lines are defined and have been mulched to allow easy traverse. Overall, this property at 3040 Old Hwy 51S in Osyka, Mississippi, offers a blend of charm and serenity, a one of a kind unique location. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country escape or a country home to call your own, this property is sure to captivate you with its location, appeal and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this home your own and start creating new memories in this beautiful setting

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• A frame architecture
• Water well

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• WATER WELL
• A FRAME ARCHITECTURE
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• PROPERTY LINES DEFINED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-425/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#258 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• South Pike School District (rural): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #105 of 130 in MS (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Osyka Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #108 of 375 statewide, top 30%, 185 students, 100% FRL); South Pike Senior High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #170 of 197 statewide, top 90%, 454 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,490 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3040 Old 51	0.00mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	0mo	$120,000	$133	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $36,482
• Equity at exit: $79,773

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $108,170
• Equity at exit: $148,564

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39657

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $114,874

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $6	+0% $-35	+5% $-77	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-75	+0% $-35	+5% $4	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-5	base $-35	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-02-26
   listed $120,000 Active 1838-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1838 chars)

   Update Property Description: Welcome to this A Frame home/camp located at 3040 Old Hwy 51S in Osyka, Mississippi. A great escape from the city! Approximate build date is 1992 per Pike County property records, this two-story property sits on acreage. The structure features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, making it perfect for a small family or couple looking for a peaceful retreat in the countryside. This property was once part of the St. Mary of the Pines (Sisters of Notre Dame) campus and was used as a retreat location. Today it is approximately 0.6 miles from Our Lady of Hope, a short distance on a rural highway. As you approach the property, you'll be greeted by a picturesque setting with plenty of greenery and room to roam. The property has a water well and pump, central heat and air. The exterior of the structure exudes a classic appeal, with A Frame architecture. Remodeling has begun and can be continued by new owners. Upstairs in the loft, you'll find a second bedroom, offering a private and serene retreat. Outside, the property offers plenty of space for outdoor activities and enjoyment. The expansive lot provides endless possibilities for gardening, outdoor dining, or simply enjoying the tranquility of the countryside. With acreage to call your own, you'll have plenty of room to explore and make memories. Property lines are defined and have been mulched to allow easy traverse. Overall, this property at 3040 Old Hwy 51S in Osyka, Mississippi, offers a blend of charm and serenity, a one of a kind unique location. Whether you're looking for a peaceful country escape or a country home to call your own, this property is sure to captivate you with its location, appeal and inviting atmosphere. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this home your own and start creating new memories in this beautiful setting

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$965
• − Management: −$965
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$596
• After-tax cash flow: $171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This A-frame home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding, flooring, and interior walls. Significant improvements are needed to make it move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is damaged and rusted, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major flooring — The flooring appears to be dirty and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls are painted, but the paint appears to be peeling and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both repair and replace flooring — A new flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.
• Both paint interior walls — Painting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof is damaged and rusted, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is peeling and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring appears to be dirty and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The interior walls are painted, but the paint appears to be peeling and in poor condition, indicating a major repair is needed.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both repair and replace flooring — A new flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Painting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Pike School District
• NCES district ID: 2804080
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $29,674
• Composite: 13.04/100
• National rank: #9566
• State rank: #105 of 130 in MS

Livability — Osyka

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #20587

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 40% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Current HPI: 123.6546
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $120,000 MLSU