40 Birch Meadows Ests #40

Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$48,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $1,549/mo
• Annual: $18,589/yr
• Cap rate: 45.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 138.31%
• DSCR: 7.15
• 1% rule: 4.96%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Division Street Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 414 students, 25% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 45.0% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.