40 Birch Meadows Ests #40 · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$48,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as scenic views, community events, and , your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.0% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $46,560 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 138.31%
• DSCR: 7.15
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $103,504
• Equity at exit: $7,157

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.43×
• Total profit: $274,587
• Equity at exit: $4,150

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$60 /mo · $720/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $1,549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $420

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Elm St Unit 1 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	44d	1	0.18mi
68 Marvin St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	23d	1	0.46mi
55 Railroad Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$3,570	$3.25	19d	2	0.57mi
110 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,600	$2.32	44d	1	0.66mi
425 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	44d	1	0.68mi
3 Station Ln Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,120	$2.17	44d	2	0.68mi
433 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	44d	1	0.69mi
77 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$14,000	$14.21	44d	1	0.75mi
30 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,190	$3.27	14d	7	0.81mi
156 Circular St Unit 9 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$2,350	$2.47	44d	1	1.00mi
590 N Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1012	$2,150	$2.12	44d	1	1.01mi
292 Washington St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	44d	1	1.27mi
9 James St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.5	700	$1,600	$2.29	23d	1	1.31mi
30 Excelsior Ave Unit B-5 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,625	$2.62	21d	1	1.33mi
30 Excelsior Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,625	$2.39	44d	1	1.33mi
31 Covell Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,744	$2.18	23d	1	1.41mi
223 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.5	850	$2,150	$2.53	44d	1	1.49mi
26 Quiet Harbor Dr Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$2,500	$2.12	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $48,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $48,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $48,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $48,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $48,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $48,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $48,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $48,000 Active 499-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$720
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $18,953
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,549
• After-tax cash flow: $14,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Install new window treatments — New curtains or blinds can improve energy efficiency and add a fresh look.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — New curtains or blinds can improve energy efficiency and add a fresh look. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1424.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B