4162 Winfall Ave

North Port, FL 34286

$239,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 996 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-145/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-145/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $240k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.